Livestock and Forages News Articles
Articles published in Arkansas Cattle Business
Animal Science: Today and Tomorrow - April 2006
Drought Impacting Cow Herd in the South
According to the USDA’s regional cow slaughter data, beef cow slaughter
in Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Louisiana, and New Mexico increased by 26% from
the first half of 2005 to the second half of 2005. This is a relatively large
increase; however, the first half total was 17% below the 5-year average, and
the second half total was only down about 5% compared to the 5-year average.
As the drought in this region has worsened and forage conditions have diminished,
beef cow slaughter in this region was expected to increase significantly by
the end of 2005. The data indicates that cow slaughter in the Southern Plains
has increased, but probably not by as much as most might have expected. With
2005 cow-calf profitability at all time highs, producers are most likely doing
everything possible to keep their cows, which may explain why cows slaughter
has not increased more in this region.
Based on the weather outlook for the Southern Plains, little relief is expected
at least through the first quarter of 2006. As a result, cow slaughter in this
region is likely to increase as the dry weather takes its toll on forage conditions
and producers are forced to reduce cow herd numbers during a time in the cow
cycle when most producers are increasing their herd size. It is worth noting
that in the past two weeks, larger than normal runs of cows have been seen in
the Southern Plains.
Beef Industry Will Need to Grow
The average per capita consumption of beef in the U.S. has ranged between 65-67
pounds for the past 15 years. Demand growth has been phenomenal since 1999,
which has allowed producers in the U.S. to sell the same amount of product at
prices 25% higher than before. This is what has led to the record high price
levels on all classes of cattle in each of the last three years.
If per capita beef consumption remains between 65-67 pounds for the next decade,
the market will require a substantial increase in supply to meet the growing
population. In fact, it is estimated that net beef supply would be close to
30.5 billion pounds by 2015 compared to 27.5 billion pounds this year. The total
cow herd is expected to grow the balance of the decade.
At today’s productivity level, it would require the nation’s cow
herd to grow about four million head to meet this target; however, carcass weights
will continue to increase and other efficiencies will be gained. In addition,
imports will continue to rise to help supplement our domestic market’s
need for ground beef, so a 2.5 to 3.0 million head increase in the cow herd
would be adequate.
This is a great opportunity in the long-term for producers but must be kept
in perspective. Demand must remain strong and the beef industry will have to
maintain market share with competitive proteins in order for this opportunity
to fully develop.
Intense Selection for Reduced Birth Weight could be Antagonistic to
Bull Fertility Traits
Profitability of the cow-calf enterprise is highly dependent on the percentage
of calf crop weaned, which in turn depends on the fertility of parents and survival
of progeny. Scrotal circumference and semen traits may be indicative of sire
fertility, and birth weight may be indicative of calf survival. In a collaborative
study, scientists at Montana State University and the Miles City Research Station
used records on 841 Line 1 Hereford bulls to estimate heritability for scrotal
circumference and semen traits and their genetic correlations with birth weight.
The heritability estimate for scrotal circumference was high (0.57) and in
line with previous estimates. The heritability estimate for birth weight was
moderate (0.34). Heritability estimates for semen traits were low to moderate
(0.0 to 0.37). Genetic correlations of scrotal circumference with semen traits
were generally moderate to high (0.20 to 0.77), indicating that selection for
scrotal circumference should result in a correlated improvement in semen quality.
Genetic correlations of birth weight with scrotal circumference and semen traits
were also moderate to high (0.20 to 0.60), indicating that intense selection
for reduced birth weight would be antagonistic to scrotal circumference and
semen quality. These results suggest that placing extreme selection pressure
on reducing BW would eventually result in a decline in male fertility.
It’s a Wal-Mart World
The scale of Wal-Mart is mind-boggling. It has become the world’s largest
retail business. If its $285 billion in annual sales were a country, it would
be the 20th largest in the world. If its 1.6 million employees were a city,
Wal-Mart would be America’s 5th largest.
At some point, nearly all of Wal-Mart’s conventional stores will be transformed
into its combined grocery/general merchandise supercenters. The company already
operates over 500 million square feet of retail space, the equivalent of about
10,000 football fields. Even if Wal-Mart were to never build another new store,
the conversion of its conventional stores to supercenters will further strengthen
its position as America’s number one food retailer with nearly 20% of
total market share. Recently, however, Wal-Mart announced that it plans to add
another 600 stores in 2006.
By: Dr. Keith Lusby and Dr. Tom Troxel
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