|
|
Beef Production in Arkansas
Response to the Challenges of 2006
Beef Cattle Predictions for 2006:
- Arkansas cow-calf producers have experienced profitability over the last
six years. 2006 is expected to be another profitable year for cow-calf producers,
but profits are expected to be slightly smaller than last year.
- The January 1, 2006 U.S. cattle inventory is expected to total 97.3 million
head which is up more than 1.5% compared to a year ago. In addition the U.S.
cowherd is projected at 43 million head up about 900,000 head from a year
ago. The beef cow inventory is expected to continue growing every year until
about 2010. The decline in calf prices will begin in 2006 but the price in
2006 will well above breakeven prices.
- Calf prices (550 pound steer) are forecasted to average $121 to $123/cwt.
in 2006 which is about $6.00/cwt lower than in 2005. Nevertheless Arkansas
cow-calf producers will be profitable in 2006.
- Calf prices are expected to move lower through the end of the decade. Long
term forecasting predicts calf prices to bottom out sometime around 2009 to
2011 and to be in the low to mid $80’s.
- Bred females values during 2005 were about $150 higher per head on average
that in 2004. The year was characterized by producer’s being in an expansion
mode as well as favorable weather and moisture conditions for the majority
of the country.
- Bred cow prices the first half of 2006 will be the cyclical high. This
should be followed by slow decline in prices through the end of the decade.
Bred cow prices are expected to average about $1,150 per head in 2006.
- The results with an increase in cattle numbers is an increase in beef production.
Beef production in 2006 is projected to increase nearly 1 billion pounds (4%)
compared to 2005 and total 25.5 billion pounds. Average carcass weights are
expected to increase 5 pounds from 757 pounds in 2005 to 762 pounds in 2006.
- Record large corn supplies of more than 13 billion bushels and the second
largest corn crop of more than 11 billion bushels had harvest cash prices
in the Midwest at some of the lowest levels in recent years.
- Corn demand has also increased primarily from the ethanol industry. With
total corn supplies of approximately 13 billion bushels and ending stock at
2.3 billion bushels, Omaha corn could average $1.70 to $1.85 this year.
- Beef demand grew in 2004 and was about even in 2005 as suggested by steady
net beef supplies ad steady retail prices. Demand growth is expected to be
limited in 2006 and flatten out during the balance of the decade.
- Per capita beef spending increased slightly in 2005 and is projected to
be about even in 2006. Spending increased from $240 per person in 2004 to
$241 per person in 2005. Per capita consumption decreased just slightly in
2005, from 66.3 pounds in 2004 to 65.9 pounds in 2005. Consumption is expected
to remain near current levels for the remainder of the decade.
- The total number of dollars available in the industry is expected to be
fairly flat the next few years. However, the distribution of those dollars
may change significantly during the next 24 months as number grow, production
increases and the cycle progresses. Packer, retailers and food service operators
will capture a higher percentage of the available dollars during this transition
phase of the cycle.
- The bottom line is there will be fewer dollars available for the Arkansas
cow-calf producer. Implementing cost effective practices now may pay large
dividends in the years to come as calf prices decline.
Drought Management Practices:
- Provide a Good Water Supply. This is becoming more and more difficult.
In many areas ponds are at an extremely low level or dried up completely.
Producers have to haul water or purchase water through a rural water system.
Either option is an extra expense.
- Check the Herd Routinely. Check for good health, body condition and soundness
– eyes, feet, teeth, udder, etc. Mastitis in beef cows has increased
because cows are wading in shallow ponds. Due to short grass, Clostridial
infections (Blackleg) and Anthrax are a concern. Producers should vaccinate
cows and calves for Blackleg. Anthrax is a disease that occurs in certain
areas of the state (south central). If a farm has a history of Anthrax, vaccination
maybe recommended. Both diseases cause death.
- Inventory Feed Resources. Estimate as accurately as possible the amount
of hay available. Include crop residues or other sources of roughage. Check
on the cost and availability of crop by-products feeds such as soybean hulls,
corn gluten feed, whole cottonseed, rice bran, cottonseed hulls, etc. If feed
supplies are inadequate, consider alternative feeding and management options
to most efficiently maintain the herd.
- Cull the Herd. Sell open cows, old cows, unsound cows (injured, diseased,
pendulous udder, short or missing teeth, etc.), cows that produce light calves,
and late-calving cows. Keep young, productive cows and the best replacement
heifers and bulls. Cull cows before they lose weight and reduced income.
- Wean Calves Early. Cows nursing calves have about double the energy and
protein needs of dry cows. Calves can be weaned as young as six to eight weeks
of age and started on a complete ration. Young calves require a good quality
feed with adequate levels of protein, TDN, mineral and vitamins. After calves
are weaned, cows can be maintained on a minimum amount of forage. Cows should
be maintained in a moderate body condition. It’s generally cheaper to
feed the cow and calf separately than it is to feed the cow, which feeds the
calf.
- Creep Feeding or Creep Grazing. If milk production declines, nursing calves
receive inadequate nutrition to grow properly. Creep feeding or preferably
creep grazing (which probably won’t be available during droughts) may
be used to maintain adequate calf gains. Calves usually prefer milk to grass
so they will first take whatever milk is available, and therefore, nutrient
needs of the cow aren’t reduced by creep feeding or creep grazing.
- Provide Cattle on Pasture Supplemental Feedstuff. Hay is often the least
expensive supplement to feed cattle on pasture. However, during periods of
drought, other feeds (grains, protein supplements, range cube, etc.) may provide
a cheaper source of nutrients.
- Have Forage Tested and Feed Balanced Rations. Efficiently use available
forage by having it tested and balanced rations to avoid overfeeding or underfeeding
mistakes. Many producers are buying additional hay. It is important to forage
test all purchased hay so that the proper supplementation (if necessary) can
be determined.
- Use Appropriate Feed Additives. Monensin (Rumensin®) fed to beef cows,
replacement heifers or stockers at the recommended levels will reduce hay
or pasture requirements by about 10 percent. Lasalocid (Bovatec®) will
improve feed efficiency in calves, replacement heifers and stockers.
- Supply Adequate Minerals and Vitamins. Nutrient needs for phosphorus and
other minerals and vitamins should be met especially during periods of drought.
Provide a good free-choice mineral-vitamin supplement year-round.
- Consider Poultry Litter and Other Alternative Feeds. Identify the cheapest
sources of protein, energy and roughage for a given situation and then use
those feeds to balance a ration for the cattle that must be fed. Broiler litter
is usually preferred to turkey litter but either maybe used as a cheap source
of protein and minerals for beef cattle if they are good quality and adequately
processed.
- Group Cattle for Feeding. Don’t feed all cattle together in one group.
Separate the herd into groups based on nutrient needs. Dry cows need less
than cows nursing calves. Replacement heifers and first-calf heifers have
higher requirement than mature cows. Distinct management groups of cattle
in most beef herds are: (1) dry cows, (2) cows nursing calves, (3) first-calf
heifers, (4) weanling replacement heifers, (5) bred yearling heifers and (6)
bulls.
- Avoid Nitrate and Prussic Acid Poisoning. Environmental conditions that
retard plant growth often cause excessive accumulation in plants of nitrate
and prussic acid. If forage is suspect, have it tested for these poisons.
Most common accumulators of nitrates ranked from highest to lowest are weeds,
corn, sorghums, sudangrass, cereal grains, tame forage and legumes. Nitrate
accumulates primarily in lower stems. Prussic acid accumulates primarily in
the leaves.
- Maintain Herd Health. Continue to follow recommended guidelines for vaccinating
cattle, controlling files and other external and internal parasites.
- Avoid Feed Waste. Plan feeding to avoid waste. Unroll large round bales
or use ring feeders to prevent wastage of hay. May limit-feed hay to make
cattle eat all of it, especially if grain or other feeds will be supplied.
- Watch Your Cost. Be careful not to over extend when it comes to feeding
during a drought. The price for feed will probably increase as the drought
persists.
|
