Agricultural and Food Policy
 Agri Outlook Radio
Number 209
Outlook: Rice Outlook and Market Issues (4:31 minutes)
Audio/Video Script:
Robert Coats, Ph.D.
Extension Economist and Professor
University of Arkansas, Division of Agriculture
Discussing Rice Outlook and Market Issues, I’m Robert Coats Extension Economist University of Arkansas Division of
Agriculture.
USDA’s October U.S. Supply and Demand forecast estimates 2008 U.S. rice
production at 204.1 million cwt, 2.8 million cwt below the September estimate.
The reduction in the forecast was due entirely to a projected decrease in yield.
USDA now forecasts a yield estimated at 155 bushels per
acre. This is a reduction of 2.1 bushels per acre from the previous
monthly forecast.
USDA left U.S. harvested all rice acreage unchanged at 2.92 million acres.
USDA projects that Arkansas all rice producers will harvest 1,345,000 acres,
this would be up from 2007’s 1,325,000 acres. The Arkansas yield is projected
at 153 bushels per acre which is below last year’s
158.4 bushels per acre. An array of continuing climatic factors throughout the
production season will make achieving USDA’s current yield estimate difficult.
Arkansas rice producers had harvested 65-percent of their rice acreage as of
October 5, which compared to the previous 5-year average of 85-percent
harvested.
U.S. long-grain rice production is forecast at 155.2 million cwt, down 2.1
million cwt from the September estimate. Long-grain exports were lowered 1.5
million cwt to 85.0 million and long-grain ending stocks are now estimated
slightly below the September estimate at 17.3 million cwt.
The long-grain rice season-average farm price is forecast at $15.50 to $16.50
per cwt, up $0.50 per cwt on each end of the range. One has to wonder how the
current deflationary global economic setting will impact rice and grain prices.
Now turning to the world rice market USDA reports the following:
- Thai quotes dropped
$30 to $676 per ton, FOB, from last month’s $706. In the past 6 months,
Thai prices have dropped $180, or 20%.
- Domestic: U.S.
long grain milled rice quotes dropped $11 to $787 per ton, FOB. The
spread between comparable qualities of Thai and U.S. rice narrowed $13
to $111 per ton from $124 this time last year.
- California medium
grain rice prices remain quoted at $1,150 per ton, FOB.
To conclude on October 8 the CME Group had a live online discussion on market
issues. The program was conducted by Ag Resources and
was titled “Anticipating the October 10th USDA Crop Production and Supply and
Demand Reports.” The program included:
- Pre-report yield and production estimates
- Observations on demand
- The outside influence of the dollar and energy
- Capitalizing on hedging and trading opportunities
Click here
to view a video recording of the CME Group Seminar: Anticipating the October
10th USDA Crop Production and Supply and Demand Reports
I highly recommend viewing this program on current market issues.
This has been Robert Coats Extension Economist University of Arkansas
Division of Agriculture.
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