Agricultural and Food Policy
 Agri Outlook
Radio
Number 184
Policy: 2008 Soybean Acreage and Price Outlook (2:59 minutes)
Audio/Video Script:
Robert Coats, Ph.D.
Extension Economist and Professor
University of Arkansas, Division of Agriculture
The National Agricultural Statistical Service estimates that U.S. soybean producers in 2008 will harvest an estimated
72.1 million acres, up 15 percent from last year or 2007, but only 1.5% above
the past five year average and only .7% above the past 10 year average.
USDA indicates that Arkansas soybean producers this production season are
projected to harvest 3,150,000 acres or Arkansas soybean producers are expected
to harvest 13% more acres this year than last year. If realized this year’s
Arkansas soybean harvest will be 5.7% above the average for the past five years
and 3.3% above the average for the past 10 years.
U.S. soybean producers are forecast by USDA to harvest a fairly normal
acreage of soybeans and Arkansas soybean producers are projected to harvest a
slightly larger acreage than the average of the past 10 years. The question will
yields and production suffer due to beginning soybean production season
flooding, rains, and wet soils and what positive or negative impact will the
remaining production season have on U.S. soybean yield and production.
What is my price expectation for soybeans? The price trend continues to be
up. I expect that trend to continue. I would not be surprised to see the price
trend continue up in soybeans for 6 months or more with pullbacks along the way.
The problem producer’s face is that the commodity market is very volatile and
dangerous. Producers should only be in these markets with professional help and
guidance.
We are in a global bull market for commodities until proven otherwise. The
global economic setting is inflationary and this is bullish for commodities; the
dollar still has further to fall and this is bullish for commodities; and strong
global fuel and food demand remain and this is bullish for commodities.
I expect the global bull market in commodities to continue probably over the
next decade if not beyond. That said, producers must be concerned about a
significant correction at some point in the future.
This has been Robert Coats Extension Economist University of Arkansas
Division of Agriculture.
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