Agricultural and Food Policy
 Agri Outlook
Radio
Number 137
Outlook/Noteworthy: Part 4.
USDA Long-Term Agricultural Projections
- Key Results on U.S. agricultural commodities (3:27 minutes)
Audio/Video Script:
Dr. Bobby Coats
Extension Economist
University of Arkansas, Division of Agriculture
USDA’s long-term agricultural projections shows continued strong global
demand for commodities. I’m Bobby Coats Extension Economist University of
Arkansas Division of Agriculture.
Key results of U.S. agricultural commodities include:
First, USDA projects strong expansion of corn-based ethanol production in the
United States will affect virtually every aspect of the field crops sector,
ranging from domestic demand and exports to prices and the allocation of acreage
among crops as a higher proportion of overall plantings is allocated to corn.
Second, USDA projects ethanol production in the United States continues its
strong expansion through 2009 into 2010, with slower growth in subsequent years. By the
end of the 10 year projection period, ethanol production is projected to exceed
14 billion gallons per year, using almost 5 billion bushels of corn.
Third, USDA projects growth in the food use of wheat will match the rate of
population increase. Feed use of wheat rebounds from the low levels of 2006/07
and 2007/08 as higher corn prices encourage increases in wheat feeding.
Fourth, USDA projects that soybean acreage will fall after 2008 due to more
favorable returns to corn production. USDA sees longrun growth in domestic
soybean crush is mostly driven by increasing demand for domestic soybean meal
for livestock feed and is reflected to a lesser degree by increasing domestic
soybean oil demand for biodiesel production.
Fifth, USDA projects moderate expansion of domestic food use of rice.
Although growth is somewhat faster than population growth, it is well below the rates of growth
in the 1980's and 1990's when per capita use rose rapidly. USDA sees imports of rice
accounting for a growing share of domestic use.
Sixth, USDA projects mill use of upland cotton in the United States to fall
as U.S. imports of apparel continue to increase, reducing domestic apparel production and
lowering the apparel industry’s demand for fabric and yarn produced in the United States.
Seventh, USDA projects the production value of U.S. horticultural crops to
grow by more than 3 percent annually over the next decade, with consumption of
horticultural products continuing to rise. USDA sees imports playing an
important role in domestic supply during the winter and, increasingly, during
other times of the year, providing U.S. consumers with a larger variety of horticultural products.
Finally, USDA projects production of all meats will slow or declines in the
first half of the 10 year projections. This reflects higher feed costs and lower
producer returns as more corn is used in the production of ethanol.
This has been Bobby Coats Extension Economist University of Arkansas Division
of Agriculture.
Back to Agricultural and
Food Policy Radio
|
