Agricultural and Food Policy
 Agri Outlook
Radio
Number 134
Policy: Part 1.
USDA Long-Term Agricultural Projections Show Decline in Net Farm Income
(1:58 minutes)
Audio/Video Script:
Dr. Bobby Coats
Extension Economist
University of Arkansas, Division of Agriculture
USDA releases long-term agricultural projections to 2017. I'm Bobby Coats
Extension Economist University of Arkansas Division of Agriculture.
USDA releases long-term agricultural projections to 2017. The new projections
cover agricultural crop and livestock commodities, agricultural trade and
aggregate indicators such as farm income and food prices through 2017. The
projections are not a USDA forecast, but a conditional, long-run scenario based
on specific assumptions about farm policy, the weather, the economy and
international developments. Provisions of the 2002 Farm Bill are incorporated
into the projections. Normal weather is also assumed throughout the projection
period.
Key results on net farm income include:
USDA projects net farm income to initially decline from the high levels of
2007 and 2008, but it is projected to remain historically strong throughout the
ten year projection period, and reach record levels beyond 2011.
USDA gives the following factors as contributing to their strong income
projections.
- Growth in export demand is projected to contribute to increases in
agricultural commodity prices and gains in farm cash receipts; next
- Corn-based ethanol production increases are projected in the baseline;
finally
- With lower government payments, the agriculture sector relies
increasingly on the market for its income. Cash receipts represent more than
90 percent of gross cash income in the projections, up from about 85 percent
in 2005.
This has been Bobby Coats Extension Economist University of Arkansas Division
of Agriculture.
Back to Agricultural and
Food Policy Radio
|
