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Agricultural and Food Policy
 Agri Outlook
Radio
Number 103
Arkansas’ Rice Situation and Outlook, Presented 2007 USA National Rice Outlook Conference, Orlando Florida – December 2-4, 2007 by Bobby Coats – Professor & Extension Economist, University of Arkansas Division of Agriculture (2:47 minutes)
Audio/Video Script:
Dr. Bobby Coats
Extension Economist
University of Arkansas, Division of Agriculture
This is Part 3 of Arkansas’ 2008 Rice Situation and Outlook. I’m Bobby Coats
Extension Economist University of Arkansas Division of Agriculture.
Slide 1 [Title Slide] – Turning now to my Arkansas’ 2008 rice acreage expectation.
Slide 2 [Bar Graph] – In 2008 my current long grain rice harvested
acreage expectation under Scenario No. 1, my bullish view:
- Assumes continued strong global growth and a continued bull
commodity market
- Bullish global rice fundamentals
- Global weather issues are increasingly probable
I continue to expect more weakness than strength in the dollar couple these
factors with continued strengthening rice prices or adequate rice pricing
opportunities and Arkansas rice producers will be harvesting 1,242,000 plus rice
long grain rice acres in 2008, which compares to 1,180,000 acres in 2007.
Scenario No. 2, my bearish view, assumes the impact of farm bill uncertainty
or a farm bill that increases Arkansas rice producers’ risk exposure and reduces
their ability to cash flow, especially coupled with staggering production cost
increases of recent years. Now consider the possibility of soybean and feed
grain prices moving toward or pasted record highs, and the lack of long grain
rice price bullishness and Arkansas long grain rice producers could plant
926,000 or fewer acres in 2008.
Slide 3 [Bar Graph] – In 2008 my current medium grain rice harvested
acreage expectation is 124,000 acres. This would be a 14% reduction over 2007’s
estimated 144,000 harvested acres The 124,000 medium grain rice acres estimate
for 2008 represents a reasonable acreage given the expected demand for medium
grain rice. With the new medium grain rice variety Jupiter available in 2008,
medium grain rice producers should be cautious about over planting and pay
attention to 2008’s medium grain rice demand.
This has been Bobby Coats Extension Economist University of Arkansas Division
of Agriculture.
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