Agricultural and Food Policy
 Agri Outlook
Radio
Number 67
Outlook: Arkansas Row Crop Outlook (4:27 minutes)
Audio/Video Script:
Dr. Bobby Coats
Extension Economist
University of Arkansas, Division of Agriculture
Arkansas row crop producers begin harvesting 5.6 million acres of corn, rice,
cotton, soybeans, and grain sorghum. I’m Bobby Coats Extension Economist
University of Arkansas Division of Agriculture.
With each passing day Arkansas row crop producers are increasingly engaged in the
harvest of 5.6 million acres of corn, rice, cotton, soybeans, and grain
sorghum. Arkansas farmers will harvest 1.3 million acres of rice, 820,000
acres of cotton, 2.8 million acres of soybeans, 530,000 acres of corn, and
210,000 acres of grain sorghum.
Arkansas producer’s will harvest 48 percent of this nation’s rice, 8 percent of the nations
cotton, 4 percent of the soybeans, 3 percent of the grain sorghum, and .6 percent of
corn acreage.
NASS estimates that for 2007, Arkansas rice producers will produce 90 million
hundredweight of rice with an average yield of 6,950 pounds per acre or 154
bushels per acre. Though production is down 6 percent from last year, it remains
at normal production levels.
On cotton, Arkansas cotton production in 2007 is estimated by NASS at 1.85 million
480-pound bales with an estimated yield of 1,083 pounds per acre, which if
achieved, is the second largest yield on record. Low cotton prices since January
2004 coupled with the increased demand for corn, reduced this year’s planted
acreage.
On soybean, Arkansas soybean production in 2007 is estimated at 105 million
bushels. This is down 3 percent from last year’s 2006 production. The Arkansas
soybean yield is estimated at 38 bushels per acre, but continued extreme hot
weather
could reduce the yield.
On corn, Arkansas corn production in 2007 is estimated up 209 percent over 2006 to
81.1 million bushels. This will be the largest corn crop in Arkansas history.
The yield is estimated at 153 bushels per acre.
On sorghum, Arkansas sorghum for grain production in 2007 is estimated at 18.3 million
bushels, up 258 percent from a year ago. NASS data indicates an expected yield
of 87 bushels per acre.
Price Outlook:
Rice prices have shown weakness moving into the harvest season. That said the
trend in rice prices since July 2005 has remained fairly strong. Rice continues
to derive strength from the immediate expectation of strong to stronger wheat
prices and strengthening corn prices just may be what is needed to keep rice
prices from breaking down.
Will soybean prices move higher or will they weaken into the harvest season
before moving higher? The extreme heat and drought conditions coupled with the
dynamics of the commodities market probably hold the answer. The smart money
commercials are very short the market. The events of the next few weeks should
provide insight into the soybean markets direction.
And finally cotton, if you are more bullish than bearish on the food
commodities over the next 12 months, which I am, then cotton also has the
potential to move significantly higher. The maintenance of this amazingly strong
global economy has created a huge demand for all commodities.
Commodity markets especially in today’s economic setting are complex and
challenging and I would always advise professional assistance from co-ops or
marketing firms.
This has been Bobby Coats Extension Economist University of Arkansas Division
of Agriculture.
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