Dr. Bobby Coats
Extension Economist
University of Arkansas, Division of Agriculture
USDA in their April 9, 2008 Supply and Demand Estimate release made no
changes to the U.S. 2007/08 rice supply and use projections. They raised the
season-average farm price 20 cents per cwt on each end of the range to $12.05 to
$12.35 per cwt., this compares to the previous marketing period's $9.96 per cwt.
Globally, from last month USDA raised their production, domestic use, and
ending stocks estimates for 2007/08 and lowered imports and exports. USDA made
the following points:
- USDA raised global production 2.4 million tons in part due to increases
of 1.5 million tons for Indonesia, 0.6 million ton increase for Burma, and a
0.02 million tons increase for Brazil.
- USDA lowered global imports nearly 2 million tons partly due to the
impact of higher global prices and export bans and restrictive policies
among many of the leading exporters including Egypt, India, and Vietnam.
Imports are lowered for Brazil, China, Cuba, Iraq, Indonesia, and a number
of markets in Africa. Africa's imports are down 550,000 tons from last
month. Indonesia's imports are lowered due primarily to a large increase in
production.
- USDA lowered global exports partly due to reductions for Egypt,
Cambodia, China, India, and Vietnam.
- USDA projects global ending stocks at 77.1 million tons, up 1.9 million
tons from last month. This is an increase of nearly a million tons from the
2006/07 marketing period.
USDA's planting intentions report projects rice planted area for 2008 at 2.77
million acres. This is up 9,000 acres from 2007, but 2 percent less than was
planted in 2006.
U.S. long grain rice producers are expected to produce 75% of all U.S. rice.
Long grain rice acreage is projected up 7,000 acres from 2007. Arkansas rice
producers are projected to plant 60% of the U.S. long grain rice acreage
followed by Louisiana with 15%, Mississippi with 9%, Missouri with 8%, Texas
with 7% and California with .4% of the acreage,
Medium grain rice planted acreage is estimated at 634,000 acres and
represents 23 percent of the total planted U.S. rice planted acreage. Medium
grain rice acreage is up only slightly by 2,000 acres from last year.
Short grain rice planted area represents 2 percent of the total, and is
projected to be unchanged from 2007 at 66,000 acres.
Arkansas rice growers in 2008 intend to plant 1,371,000 acres or 50% of the
total rice planted in the United States. Arkansas rice growers in 2008 intend to
plant 60% of the long grain rice or 1,240,000 acres. They intend to plant 21% of
the medium grain rice or 130,000 acres and they intend to plant 1,000 acres of
the 66,000 acres of the short grain rice.
This has been Bobby Coats Extension Economist University of Arkansas Division
of Agriculture.